Short selling atmosphere exacerbates downstream anxiety and impatience


Date:

2015-08-28

空头氛围加剧下游焦灼难耐

This month's supply is still abundant, with Lianhong Group, Nanjing Dena, and Jilin Zhongxin adding a total of 340000 tons this month, indicating a bearish market sentiment; However, due to the expected decline in ethylene oxide still not being implemented, the market mentality is showing anxiety; Fundamentals remain weak, with raw material ethylene falling and related downstream ethylene glycol falling continuously. Terminal downstream surface activity, ethanolamines, monomers, etc. have been unable to control their emotions and have entered a downward channel. This week, the domestic price of ethylene oxide continued to stabilize with limited fluctuations; Ethylene oxide in East China continued to flat at 10800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, up 3.85% year on year. The focus of this week is on the new low of raw material ethylene, mixed fluctuations in downstream ethylene glycol, passive terminal consumption, and continued pressure on domestic EO factories to ship; The bearish atmosphere in the market has intensified, and the decline has not yet been implemented; It is reported that Lianhong Group and Nanjing Dena plan to release new production capacity this month, and the supply side will continue to be abundant due to the strong pessimistic sentiment of market participants towards the future market. Downstream, the domestic Ethanolamine market was consolidated in a narrow range this week. Up to now, the mainstream transaction of Ethanolamine is 10800-11000 yuan/ton; The mainstream turnover of Diethanolamine market is 11000-11500 yuan/ton; 99% of Triethanolamine's mainstream transactions were 11800-12000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; The market is mainly stagnant and organized, with strong shipping intentions from merchants and cautious buyers in accepting orders; Due to the significant downward trend in EO prices, the trading atmosphere in the alcohol amine market appears passive, and the wait-and-see sentiment remains unchanged. Recently, Ethanolamine holders have not enough confidence in the future market, and they are in a flight mentality. They are willing to go at low prices and keep their pockets open. This week, the domestic market for non ionic surfactants is facing a weak trend. So far, AEO-9 in East China has closed at 11600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week's price, down 6.8% year on year; This week, NP-10 closed at 12700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week's price and up 0.4% year-on-year. Although there has been no movement in the epoxy ethane market, the bearish expectations of traders on the market for subsequent raw material trends remain unchanged. Therefore, the buying follow-up has significantly slowed down. Domestic factories have reported a decline in sales outside of this week, mainly due to order volume production. Holders have a strong mentality of putting their bags in order and are actively trading, but there is insufficient market buying coordination and low trading volume. The weak performance of the domestic polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer market continued within the week. Up to now, TPEG mainstream negotiation in East China is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton; The mainstream negotiations for HPEG range from 12700 to 13000 yuan/ton, with transactions mostly at the mid to low end, which is at the same price as last week. Although there is currently a strong bearish expectation, EO factory prices continue to rise without any substantial guidance. Downstream water reducing agent companies are buying and using monomers as needed, but the pace of follow-up is slow. The supply of monomers on site continues to be abundant, and shipments are under pressure. There is still a phenomenon of interest negotiation among holders. This week, the domestic Choline chloride market continued to consolidate. The Trimethylamine factory is active in shipping, and the merchants offer flexibly. At present, the terminal feed industry is steadily following up, and the market transaction speed is slowing down. This week, due to environmental inspection restrictions at the APEC meeting, choline manufacturers in Hebei and Shandong have reduced their burden and production, and most of them are in a stagnant state. However, they have gradually recovered and the impact is limited. Up to now, 50% corncob carrier Choline chloride in Shandong